t pzdk
November 7, 2012
'Nate Silver’s Sweep Is a Huge Win for ‘Big Data’

"Like “pivot” and “cloud computing,” “big data” is one of those startup buzzwords that gets thrown around indiscriminately–partly because it means different things depending on the intel you’re trying to unearth and partly because it sounds like the kind of futuristic jargon that opens doors. Using machine learning to analyze big data? We can practically see the pitch deck already!”

I’m going to bite here and say “sort of”.  Silver’s analysis is on the very low end of what qualifies as ‘Big Data’, but that’s sort of beside the point I want to make here.  As Ezra Klein said, “The greatest trick Nate Silver ever pulled was becoming the face of aggregated polling”.  Klein is mostly right in that, while Silver masterfully aggregated a lot of data, he did an equally good job of promoting his work and, in some ways, is the product of being in the right place at the right time.  As the Atlantic pointed out, he wasn’t the only person who was accurately predicting the outcome of the election over an extended period of time.  

He reminds me a little bit of the psychologist Steve Pinker.  Like Silver, Pinker is uber-smart.  But the ideas and methodology these guys have are not entirely new.  Pinker writes pop-sci books that essentially aggregate existing research.  That said, what makes people like Pinker and Silver special is that they take something seemingly mysterious and de-mystify it.  That’s a talent very few people have.  And  You can sense a little bit of bitterness in Klein’s tweets, as though he feels he could have done what Silver did.  And he probably could have, except he didn’t.

So yes, we should absolutely, 100% celebrate Silver’s accomplishment, but more because it represents something that reaches beyond just one dude.  It’s that data has completed its near total integration into our lives, which is too often misconstrued as a bad thing.  And more to the point, it’s that everyday fools like you and I can actually see how it works and know that data is our friend.  Even in the face of so much bullshit punditry over the last four years, the data could not be denied.  Yes, @fivethirtyeight is a game changer.  But Big Data has yet to come of age and I suspect that’s where the revolution lies.  And that’s what I think about that.  

November 7, 2012
And that’s that.

(until tomorrow)

November 6, 2012
The Crowdwire: Our LIVE Social Media Exit Poll

thecrowdwire:

Running now and throughout Election Day at the top of this page is The Crowdwire’s exclusive Live Social Media Exit Poll. It shows the number of people who are sharing the news that they voted - either by tweet or public Facebook post - and, if they reveal it, how they voted.

Voted for Obama Tweet

The…

more cool

4:07pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyWkzkkO
  
Filed under: election 2012 
November 6, 2012
'Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks 'Did I vote?'

"He was dead," Houston said. "He had no heartbeat and he wasn’t breathing. I started CPR, and after a few minutes, he revived and started breathing again. He knew his name and his wife’s name."

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Filed under: election 2012 mojo 
November 6, 2012
email from Mom

email from Mom

12:36pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyWkDsJE
  
Filed under: election 2012 FRAUD JAIL 
November 6, 2012
niccageinabearcostume:

FUCK YEAH!

Probably the most logical Romney vote you’re going to get today.

niccageinabearcostume:

FUCK YEAH!

Probably the most logical Romney vote you’re going to get today.

12:01pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyWk7ETD
  
Filed under: election 2012 
November 6, 2012
Trying as hard as I can to not post election stuff.
That said, WashPost has a very good blog post on what to look for tonight (and when), including some interesting senate stuff.

Trying as hard as I can to not post election stuff.

That said, WashPost has a very good blog post on what to look for tonight (and when), including some interesting senate stuff.

(Source: jessicadnguyen, via gothsummer)

November 5, 2012
he believes

he believes

11:11pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyWiaBdp
  
Filed under: iowa election 2012 
November 5, 2012
justlookatthe-messyoumade:

Three guys hanging out backstage in Columbus.

It’s weird

justlookatthe-messyoumade:

Three guys hanging out backstage in Columbus.

It’s weird

(via cloudberryfinn-deactivated20130)

8:44pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyWhwx1Z
  
Filed under: election 2012 
November 4, 2012
If you can bear it, the nytimes has one giant Ohio article that explains the military like tactics employed to win the state

And Nate Silver writes a post that appears to be his final attempt at explaining probability.  

November 2, 2012
'Virginia voter fraud case expands to focus on GOP firm'

The investigation into the arrest of a man on charges of dumping voter registration forms last month in Harrisonburg, Va., has widened, with state officials probing whether a company tied to top Republican leaders had engaged in voter registration fraud in the key battleground state, according to two persons close to the case.

A former employee of Strategic Allied Consulting, a contractor for the Republican Party of Virginia, had been scheduled to appear last Tuesday before a grand jury after he was charged with tossing completed registration forms into a recycling bin. But state prosecutors canceled Colin Small’s grand jury testimony to gather more information, with their focus expanding to the firm that had employed Small, which is led by longtime GOP operative Nathan Sproul.

State authorities are seeking to learn whether any of Small’s supervisors instructed him or any of his 40 co-workers in Virginia to ask potential voters about their political leanings during registration drives, the two sources said. Asking such questions could be a violation of state election law.”

(via washpost)

9:56pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyWUVWg5
Filed under: election 2012 
October 31, 2012
Kid in the back

Kid in the back

October 29, 2012

boobsradley:

Holy. Shit. Whedon forever.

mauiinc:

FOREVER!

suitep:

Timely.

wow

(via marjoree)

October 24, 2012
I know Nate Silver is not the end all be all of polling, stats etc., but this is neat

"At several points on Tuesday and early Wednesday, what appeared to be a single trader bought a large number of Mr. Romney’s shares at Intrade, at one point boosting Mr. Romney’s chances to about 49 percent from 41 percent over the span of a few minutes. The betting patterns echo similar ones in the pricing of John McCain and Mr. Obama’s stock at Intrade late in the 2008 cycle.

It is not necessarily safe to conclude that represents an effort to manipulate the market, or public perceptions about Mr. Romney’s chances. Instead, it could just be someone who thinks Mr. Romney is a good bet relative to the price being offered.

A sophisticated bettor, however, would probably have sought out somewhere else to place his bets on Mr. Romney, since even before the recent market action, they offered a more favorable price than Intrade did.”

(Source: The New York Times)

October 17, 2012
postcardsfromamerica:

Darrell Carter and his wife Marian. Liberty City, Florida.Darrell committed a robbery in 1976 and since hasn’t had his voting rights restored. “Down here they tax you all your life - one little miserable mistake and they tax you forever.  Your voice can’t be heard unless you vote, so if they take that away from you don’t exist”.One in ten Florida adults — and nearly one in four African Americans – cannot vote because of a felony conviction. More than 1.3 million felons were disenfranchised in Florida in 2010.

postcardsfromamerica:

Darrell Carter and his wife Marian. Liberty City, Florida.

Darrell committed a robbery in 1976 and since hasn’t had his voting rights restored. “Down here they tax you all your life - one little miserable mistake and they tax you forever.  Your voice can’t be heard unless you vote, so if they take that away from you don’t exist”.

One in ten Florida adults — and nearly one in four African Americans – cannot vote because of a felony conviction. More than 1.3 million felons were disenfranchised in Florida in 2010.

4:07pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/Z9NyWyVTxMJo
  
Filed under: election 2012 florida